暴力对迁移动态的影响：来自墨西哥革命的证据

中文摘要

近几十年来，冲突导致的被迫流离失所急剧增加，但人们对暴力如何在短期或更长时间范围内影响迁移动态仍知之甚少。利用墨西哥革命（1910—1917年）——历史上最致命的冲突之一——期间的新型高频数据，我们发现局部暴力导致赴美迁移急剧但暂时性地飙升60%，这一飙升仅持续七个月，随后便恢复至冲突前水平。我们没有发现革命后移民增加的证据，这表明即使在边境相对开放的时期，难民网络也未引发显著的链式迁移。

Abstract

Forced displacement from conflict has risen sharply in recent decades, yet little is known about how violence impacts migration dynamics in the short run or over a longer horizon. Using novel high-frequency data during the Mexican Revolution (1910-1917), one of history’s deadliest conflicts, we find that localized violence caused a sharp but temporary 60 percent spike in migration to the US, lasting only seven months before reverting to pre-conflict levels. We do not find evidence of increased migration after the Revolution, suggesting that refugee networks did not spur significant chain migration, even during an era of relatively open borders.