中文摘要
全球政治紧张局势加剧以及贸易政策使用日益频繁，通常被视为全球化的潜在威胁。这些因素会导致受影响经济体“脱钩”，还是会以更复杂的方式重塑贸易伙伴之间的关系？我们通过研究中美直接贸易大幅下降背景下中美经济关系的近期演变来探讨这一问题。利用企业层面和产品层面的数据，我们发现中国制造业投资和中国生产的零部件日益流向第三国“赢家”，这些国家同时提高了其在美国市场的份额。这表明中国经济主体持续参与着重组后的中美供应链。我们提供的证据表明，我们的发现反映的是连接中美两国、不断扩大的间接关系，而非“赢家”自身内部更广泛的经济趋势。• 近年来，中国商品在美国进口中的份额大幅下降。• 然而，我们发现了中美间接经济关系不断扩大的证据。• 美国进口份额的“赢家”接纳了更多新设的中国制造业附属企业。• 中国零部件日益流向美国下游市场份额的“赢家”。• 政治紧张局势加剧和积极干预型贸易政策未必意味着“脱钩”。
Abstract
Rising global political tensions and increasing use of trade policies are popularly seen as potential threats to globalization. Will these factors lead to the ‘decoupling’ of affected economies, or reshape relations between trade partners in more complex ways? We consider this question by studying the recent evolution of the economic relationship between China and the US, in the context of a sharp fall in direct China-US trade. Using firm-level and product-level data, we show that Chinese manufacturing investment and Chinese-produced parts have increasingly flowed to third-country ‘winners’ who have simultaneously increased their US market share. This suggests that Chinese economic actors have continued to participate in reorganized China-US supply chains. We present evidence that our findings capture expanding indirect relationships linking China and the US rather than broader economic trends within the ‘winners’ themselves. • The share of Chinese goods in US imports has fallen sharply in recent years. • However, we find evidence of expanding indirect China-US economic relations. • ‘Winners’ of US import share have hosted more new Chinese manufacturing affiliates. • Chinese parts have increasingly flowed to ‘winners’ of downstream US market share. • Rising political tensions and activist trade policy might not imply ‘decoupling’.