Evaluating the labor supply implications of a cash transfer program: Evidence from China
Journal of Development Economics · 2025 · Jie-Sheng Tan-Soo、Mingda Cheng、Shuai Chen
中文摘要
本研究评估了中国低保计划的劳动供给影响，该计划是全球规模最大的家计调查型现金转移支付项目之一。利用其独特的给付结构——该结构确保了在资格门槛处收入的平滑过渡——我们采用模糊断点回归设计识别其对就业结果的因果效应。尽管该计划的设计旨在尽量减少负向激励，我们发现低保受益人在加入计划后就业的可能性降低了46.2%，这一效应主要由弱势群体（包括老年人和受教育程度较低者）驱动。进一步分析表明，家庭收入贡献较低的成员劳动供给显著减少，而收入较高的成员则不受影响。我们的研究结果通过揭示计划设计如何在社会保障与劳动力市场效率之间实现平衡，为现金转移支付相关讨论作出贡献，并为希望在确保弱势群体获得支持的同时减轻工作负向激励的政策制定者提供了启示。
Abstract
This study evaluates the labor supply implications of China's Dibao program, one of the largest means-tested cash transfer initiatives globally. Leveraging its unique payment structure, which ensures a smooth income transition at the eligibility threshold, we employ a fuzzy regression discontinuity design to identify causal effects on employment outcomes. Despite the program's design to minimize disincentives , we find that Dibao beneficiaries are 46.2 % less likely to be employed after enrollment, with effects primarily driven by vulnerable groups , including the elderly and individuals with low educational attainment. Further analysis reveals significant labor supply reductions among low-income-contributing household members, while higher-income members remain unaffected. Our findings contribute to the discourse on cash transfers by highlighting how program design can balance social protection with labor market efficiency, offering insights for policymakers seeking to mitigate work disincentives while ensuring support for vulnerable populations.