Journal of the European Economic Association · 2024 · Volker Grossmann、Benjamin Larin、Thomas Steger
中文摘要
过去70年来，许多发达国家经历了实际房价上涨与住房财富收入比持续上升。为解释这些长期模式，本文提出了一个新颖的多部门增长模型，其中住房服务由不可再生产的土地和可再生产的建筑结构共同生产，土地同时也被用于非住房部门。首先，我们识别出推动实际房价长期上涨的两个基本机制：（i）建筑部门的技术进步落后于经济其他部门的技术进步；（ii）住房生产比非住房生产的土地密集度更高。其次，我们研究了美国、英国、法国和德国的转型动态。经校准的模型解释了自1950年以来观测到的住房财富收入比升幅中的大部分。反事实实验表明，住宅建筑物和非住宅资本的初始存量较低，是推动这一比率上升的关键外生驱动因素。由此产生的投资激励引发了长期的建筑热潮，并使土地稀缺性持续加剧，从而推高了住宅用地价格。
Abstract
Abstract Over the last 70 years, many advanced countries have experienced growing real house prices and an increasing housing wealth-to-income ratio. To explain these long-run patterns, this paper introduces a novel multi-sector growth model where housing services are produced using non-reproducible land and reproducible structures. Land is also employed in the non-housing sector. First, we identify two fundamental mechanisms driving the long-run increase in the real house price: (i) technological progress in the construction sector lags behind the technological progress of the rest of the economy and (ii) housing production is more land-intensive than non-housing production. Second, we study transitional dynamics for the US, UK, France, and Germany. Our calibrated model explains most of the observed increase in the housing wealth-to-income ratio since 1950. Counterfactual experiments identify initially low stocks of residential structures and non-residential capital as key exogenous drivers for this increase. The associated investment incentives led to a long-lasting construction boom and steadily increasing land scarcity, boosting residential land prices.