AER: Insights · 2024 · Francisco Amaral、M. Dohmen、Sebastian Kohl、Moritz Schularick
中文摘要
一国内部房屋价值差异的扩大，是美国乃至国际上备受争议的一个趋势。利用15个发达经济体新的长期区域数据，我们发现，将价格离散度扩大与租金离散度扩大相联系的标准解释，与一个重要的典型事实相矛盾：租金离散度的增幅远小于价格离散度。我们提出一种新的解释：实际无风险利率的普遍下降，可能对房屋价值产生异质性的空间影响。实际安全利率的下降，会不成比例地推高初始租价比较低的大型集聚区的房价，从而导致全国层面的住房市场极化。(JEL E43, R21, R31)
Abstract
Rising within-country differences in house values are a much-debated trend in the United States and internationally. Using new long-run regional data for 15 advanced economies, we show that standard explanations linking growing price dispersion to rent dispersion are contradicted by an important stylized fact: rent dispersion has increased far less than price dispersion. We propose a new explanation: a uniform decline in real risk-free interest rates can have heterogeneous spatial effects on house values. Falling real safe rates disproportionately push up prices in large agglomerations where initial rent-price ratios are low, leading to housing market polarization on the national level. (JEL E43, R21, R31)