中文摘要
冲突会阻碍发展，而不利的经济冲击反过来又可能增加冲突风险。现金转移等政策干预可以通过提高贫困家庭的机会成本来减弱冲突风险。然而，现金转移也可能引发劫掠，而政府项目的扩张可能招致旨在削弱国家合法性的袭击。我们基于一项政府主导的现金转移项目的大规模随机分配和具有地理坐标的冲突事件数据，研究上述各作用力的净效应。现金转移并未带来更大程度的和平化；如果说有任何影响，反而在短期内使冲突事件增加了0.63个百分点，这在很大程度上是由外国反叛组织发动的恐怖袭击所致。（JEL D72, D74, H53, I38, O15, O17）
Abstract
Conflict undermines development, while adverse economic shocks, in turn, can increase conflict risk. Policy interventions such as cash transfers could attenuate conflict risk by raising poor households’ opportunity costs. However, cash transfers may also trigger looting, and expanding government programs may attract attacks to undermine state legitimacy. We study the net effect across these forces based on the large-scale randomization of a government-led cash transfer program and georeferenced conflict events. Cash transfers did not yield greater pacification but—if anything—triggered a short-term increase in conflict events (by 0.63 percentage points), substantially driven by terrorist attacks by foreign rebel groups. (JEL D72, D74, H53, I38, O15, O17)