生产率为何放缓？

中文摘要

我们考察了不同解释对劳动生产率放缓的贡献。将五个发达经济体2005年后的时期与此前十年进行比较，我们试图解释0.8至1.8个百分点的放缓。没有任何单一解释能够说明这一放缓，但我们识别出了一组因素，这些因素综合起来可以解释所观察到的大部分现象。在我们研究的国家中，这些因素包括误测、单位工人资本贡献的下降、无形资本增长溢出效应的减弱、贸易放缓以及资源配置效率增长的下降。部门再配置与人力资本贡献的降低在一些国家中可能也发挥了作用。除了对放缓解释的定量评估外，我们还对其他解释进行了定性评估，包括生产率增长是否可能因创新放缓而下降。(JEL E23, E24, J24, L16, O33, O47)

Abstract

We examine the contribution of different explanations to the slowdown of labor productivity. Comparing the post-2005 period with the preceding decade for five advanced economies, we seek to explain a slowdown of 0.8 to 1.8 pp. No single explanation accounts for the slowdown, but we have identified a combination of factors that, taken together, account for much of what has been observed. In the countries we have studied, these are mismeasurement, a decline in the contribution of capital per worker, lower spillovers from the growth of intangible capital, the slowdown in trade, and a lower growth of allocative efficiency. Sectoral reallocation and a lower contribution of human capital may also have played a role in some countries. In addition to our quantitative assessment of explanations for the slowdown, we qualitatively assess other explanations, including whether productivity growth may be declining due to innovation slowing down. (JEL E23, E24, J24, L16, O33, O47)