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关税的归宿:税率与现实

The Incidence of Tariffs: Rates and Reality
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2026 · Gita Gopinath、Brent Neiman

中文摘要

2025年,美国进口商品的法定关税税率升至一百多年来未见的水平。这对价格有何影响?一方面,运输时滞、豁免和执法缺口使实际执行税率仅为法定税率的一半,从而缓和了关税的影响;另一方面,关税向美国进口价格的传导率高达92%,因此美国承担了成本中的很大一部分。我们研究了2018—2019年及2025年美国关税的归宿,并讨论了其对美国采购来源、国内制造成本和美元的影响。

Abstract

In 2025, statutory tariff rates on US imports rose to levels not seen in over one hundred years. What were the implications for prices? On the one hand, shipping lags, exemptions, and enforcement gaps kept the actual implemented rates at only half of the statutory rates, moderating the tariffs' impact. On the other hand, tariff pass-through to US import prices reached 92 percent, so the United States bore a large share of the costs. We study the incidence of the 2018-2019 and 2025 US tariffs and discuss implications for US sourcing, domestic manufacturing costs, and the dollar.
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