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关税的财政与分配影响评估

Evaluating the Fiscal and Distributional Implications of Tariffs
Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2026 · Kyle Pomerleau、Erica York

中文摘要

特朗普政府已对进口商品征收一系列高额税收,包括对几乎所有进口商品普遍征收的关税。目前预计关税收入将接近GDP的1%。鉴于关税作为财政收入来源的重要性日益上升,理解其对联邦财政和家庭福祉的影响至关重要。本文介绍并评述当前关于关税收入及其分配影响的分析。

Abstract

The Trump administration has enacted a series of significant taxes on imports, including an across-the-board tariff on nearly all imports. Tariffs are now expected to raise nearly 1 percent of GDP in revenue. Given tariffs' growing importance as a source of revenue, it is important to understand their implications for federal finances and the wellbeing of households. This paper describes and reviews current revenue and distributional analyses of tariffs.
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