智能市场的兴起：企业如何买卖AI

中文摘要

我们描述了大语言模型（LLM）推理的新兴企业对企业市场，并利用OpenRouter的数据记录了其供给、定价与动态方面的关键经验模式。第一，供给迅速扩张：商业可用模型、模型创建者与推理提供者的数量急剧增长，很大程度上由开源进入者推动。第二，智能的价格大约下降了一千倍，且开源模型现在比可比的闭源模型便宜约90%。第三，市场具有高度动态性，领先模型与创建者之间频繁更替。第四，我们记录了显著的横向与纵向差异化：没有任何单一模型在各类用例中占主导地位，且不同应用对智能的需求差异极大。我们将这些模式置于历史视角下，与早期的通用目的技术进行对比。

Abstract

We describe the emerging business-to-business market for large language model (LLM) inference and document key empirical patterns in its supply, pricing, and dynamics, using data from OpenRouter. First, supply has expanded rapidly: the number of commercially available models, model creators, and inference providers has grown sharply, driven heavily by opensource entrants. Second, the price of intelligence has fallen roughly a thousandfold, and opensource models now cost about 90 percent less than comparable closed-source ones. Third, the market is highly dynamic, with frequent turnover among leading models and creators. Fourth, we document substantial horizontal and vertical differentiation: no single model dominates across use cases, and demand for intelligence varies widely across applications. We place these patterns in historical perspective alongside earlier general-purpose technologies.