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分位数回归:四十年回顾

Quantile Regression: 40 Years On
Annual Review of Economics · 2017 · Roger Koenker

中文摘要

自十九世纪凯特莱的研究以来,社会科学便将“平均人”奉为圭臬——那是一个毫无特质的假想之人,头置于烤箱而脚浸于冰桶仍安然自若。自凯特莱以降,传统统计方法一直试图为这个平均人估计政策干预的效应。然而,此类效应往往相当异质:医疗干预或可提高预期寿命,但同时带来严重的短期风险;缩小班级规模或可提升优秀学生的表现,却无助于较弱的学生,反之亦然。分位数回归方法有助于探究这些异质性效应。本文综述了分位数回归方法近期的一些进展。

Abstract

Since Quetelet's work in the nineteenth century, social science has iconified the average man, that hypothetical man without qualities who is comfortable with his head in the oven and his feet in a bucket of ice. Conventional statistical methods since Quetelet have sought to estimate the effects of policy treatments for this average man. However, such effects are often quite heterogeneous: Medical treatments may improve life expectancy but also impose serious short-term risks; reducing class sizes may improve the performance of good students but not help weaker ones, or vice versa. Quantile regression methods can help to explore these heterogeneous effects. Some recent developments in quantile regression methods are surveyed in this review.
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