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赢家与输家:竞争、创造性破坏与劳动收入风险

Winners and Losers: Competition, Creative Destruction, and Labor Income Risk
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Brice C. Green、Leonid Kogan、Dimitris Papanikolaou、Lawrence D.W. Schmidt

中文摘要

利用美国行政数据,我们发现产品市场中由技术驱动的创造性破坏会传导至工人收入。对在职工人收入的传导既是不对称的也是集中的:竞争对手创新导致的利润下降,会引发比例更大的收入下降与工作破坏概率的变化,而自身企业创新带来的利润上升则不会产生同等比例的效应,同时高收入工人比普通工人受到的影响显著更大。我们构建了一个包含买方垄断劳动力市场与工人异质性的内生增长模型,该模型重现了这种不对称性及收入风险的分布。在模型中,创造性破坏使高收入工人面临集中的下行风险,同时增加了低收入工人的向上流动性,从而塑造了创新政策的福利后果。

Abstract

Using U.S. administrative data, we find that technology-driven creative destruction in the product market passes through to worker earnings. The passthrough to incumbent worker earnings is both asymmetric and concentrated: profit drops from rival innovations lead to proportionally greater earnings declines and changes in the likelihood of job destruction than profit gains from their own firm’s innovations, while top workers are significantly more exposed than the average worker. We develop an endogenous-growth model with monopsonistic labor markets and worker heterogeneity that replicates this asymmetry and the distribution of earnings risk. In the model, creative destruction exposes high-income workers to concentrated downside risk while increasing upward mobility for lower-income workers, shaping the welfare consequences of innovation policy.
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