Why Did Inflation Rise and Fall in 2021–2024? Channels and Evidence from Expectations
中文摘要
本文利用通胀预期考察 2021—2024 年间将供给和需求冲击与通胀结果联系起来的机制。文章描述了冲击导致通胀的若干理论机制, 并强调预期在这一过程中的作用。文章使用美国、欧元区和英国的多种预期数据来源, 对上述每一渠道逐一进行评估。最后, 文章综述了运用预期数据来理解 2021—2024 年通胀飙升的相关文献。本文将这一考察的结论用于评估通胀飙升期间及其结束时通胀预期的锚定程度。
Abstract
This article uses inflation expectations to investigate the mechanisms that linked supply and demand shocks to inflation outcomes during 2021–2024. It describes several theoretical mechanisms through which shocks led to inflation, highlighting the role of expectations in this process. It uses multiple sources of expectations data for the United States, Euro area, and United Kingdom to evaluate each of these channels. Finally, it surveys the literature that has used expectations data to make sense of the 2021–2024 inflation surge. The article applies the results from this investigation to assess how well-anchored inflation expectations were during the surge and at the end of it.