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中国的“斯普特尼克时刻”?

Chinese Sputnik Moments?
NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Josh Lerner、Namrata Narain、Dimitris Papanikolaou、Amit Seru、Zunda Winston Xu

中文摘要

近几十年来,中国的技术进步既令人赞赏,也引发警惕,并且在某些情况下受到质疑。为更好地理解中国的创新生态系统,我们编制了一个包含近1400万件中国国内专利公布的数据集。我们重点考察美国国防部认定的关键技术子集。数据中显现出若干令人意外的模式:中国的专利活动与其他创新进展衡量指标高度相关;专利并未集中于华为等企业巨头;大学在创新中发挥了关键作用,其作用远大于国有企业或政府所属机构;并且,中国关键技术专利中,涉及具有美国经历或培训经历的发明人的比例不足十分之一。最后,利用四种基于文本的专利质量衡量指标,我们表明,与美国授权专利相比,中国关键技术领域专利活动的上升并未伴随质量下降。

Abstract

China’s technological progress in recent decades has been viewed with admiration, alarm, and (in some cases) doubt. To better understand the Chinese innovation ecosystem, we compile a dataset of almost 14 million domestic Chinese patent publications. We focus on the subset of critical technologies identified by the U.S. Department of Defense. Several surprising patterns emerge from the data: Chinese patenting is strongly associated with other measures of innovative progress; patents are not concentrated in corporate giants such as Huawei; universities have played a key role in innovation, much greater than state-owned enterprises or government-owned facilities; and fewer than one in ten Chinese critical technology patents involves an inventor with U.S. experience or training. Finally, using four text-based measures of patent quality, we show that the rise of Chinese patenting in critical technologies has not been associated with a decline in quality relative to the U.S. awards.
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