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社交媒体与中国的集体行动

Social Media and Collective Action in China
Econometrica · 2024 · Bei Qin、David Strömberg、Yanhui Wu

中文摘要

本文研究2009—2017年间社交媒体如何影响中国抗议和罢工的动态演变。基于132亿条微博帖子,我们使用原创微博和转发衡量城市间的社交媒体传播,并利用其快速扩张进行识别。我们发现,尽管政府实施严格审查,中国社交媒体仍对抗议和罢工的地域扩散产生了相当大的影响。此外,社交媒体传播通过推动事件跨越不同诉求扩散(例如从反腐败抗议扩散至环境抗议),显著扩大了抗议的范围,并大幅提高了多个城市同时发生事件、形成波及广泛的抗议浪潮的概率。即使中国社交媒体几乎不传播明确有助于组织抗议的内容,这些效应依然存在。

Abstract

This paper studies how social media affects the dynamics of protests and strikes in China during 2009–2017. Based on 13.2 billion microblog posts, we use tweets and retweets to measure social media communication across cities and exploit its rapid expansion for identification. We find that, despite strict government censorship, Chinese social media has a sizeable effect on the geographical spread of protests and strikes. Furthermore, social media communication considerably expands the scope of protests by spreading events across different causes (e.g., from anticorruption protests to environmental protests) and dramatically increases the probability of far‐reaching protest waves with simultaneous events occurring in many cities. These effects arise even though Chinese social media barely circulates content that explicitly helps organize protests.
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