Review of Economic Studies · 2024 · Kyle Herkenhoff、Gordon M. Phillips、Ethan Cohen‐Cole
中文摘要
消费者信贷市场如何影响劳动者在企业间的配置、产出及劳动生产率？我们分两步探讨该问题。首先，我们使用新的微观数据估计求职模式对信贷的经验弹性。其次，我们估计风险规避下匹配的新理论以匹配这些弹性，随后进行总量反事实分析。经验上，我们表明信贷限额增加相当于此前年收入10%的额度，使得个体寻找工作的时间延长0.33周。在找到工作的条件下，其收入增加1.85%，并在薪酬更高的企业工作。我们还发现年轻且信贷额度使用率高的个体对信贷反应更强。理论上，我们将风险规避与借款纳入一个包含劳动者与企业异质性的模型。我们估计该模型以匹配我们的新经验弹性，随后测算1964年至2004年的信贷扩张如何影响匹配与产出。随着信贷扩张，匹配得到改善，因为受约束的劳动者——特别是受约束的、年轻的、高人力资本的劳动者——找到了更多资本密集型的工作。
Abstract
Abstract How do consumer credit markets affect the allocation of workers to firms, output, and labour productivity? We address this question in two steps. First, we use new micro-data to estimate empirical elasticities of job search patterns to credit. Second, we estimate our novel theory of sorting under risk aversion to match these elasticities, and then we conduct aggregate counterfactuals. Empirically, we show that an increase in credit limits worth 10% of prior annual earnings allows individuals to take 0.33 weeks longer to find a job. Conditional on finding a job, they earn 1.85% more and work at higher paying firms. We also find that young and high-utilization individuals are more responsive to credit. Theoretically, we integrate risk aversion and borrowing into a model with worker and firm heterogeneity. We estimate the model to match our new empirical elasticities, and we then measure how the credit expansion from 1964 to 2004 affected sorting and output. Sorting improves as credit expands since constrained workers—in particular constrained, young, high human capital workers—find more capital-intensive jobs.