Annual Review of Economics · 2026 · [{"name": "Solomon Hsiang", "affiliation": ["National Bureau of Economic Research", "Stanford Health Care", "Stanford Medicine", "Stanford University"]}]
中文摘要
实证研究已经彻底改变了我们理解气候变化全球经济影响的方式。近期的实证分析检验了理论观点，挑战了先前的估计，并揭示了重要且出乎意料的影响。此外，实证结果的可信度与可复制性在指导高风险气候政策方面发挥了关键作用。在本文中，我描绘了关于全球影响的实证经济研究图景，阐释了现代分析的要素，总结了一系列主题上的近期发现，并指出了有前景的新研究领域。具体而言，我聚焦于该领域六大重大挑战的实证视角：理解气候变化对经济产出、健康、冲突、粮食安全、灾害与迁移的全球影响。总体而言，我认为，跨各类结果变量、相互交织的实证发现正趋于一致，共同勾勒出一幅日益连贯的图景——一个受气候变化影响的未来全球经济。综观整个文献，未加缓解的气候变化的全球后果很可能是重大的、不平等的、总体上有害的，并可能具有破坏稳定的效应。
Abstract
Empirical research has revolutionized how we understand the global economic impacts of climate change. Recent empirical analyses have tested theoretical ideas, challenged prior estimates, and revealed important and unexpected impacts. Further, the credibility and replicability of empirical results have played a critical role in guiding high-stakes climate policies. Here, I describe the landscape of empirical economic research on global impacts, I explain elements of modern analyses, I summarize recent findings on a range of topics, and I point toward promising new areas of investigation. In particular, I focus on empirical perspectives for six grand challenges in the field: understanding climate change's global impact on economic output, health, conflict, food security, disasters, and migration. Overall, I argue that interwoven empirical findings across outcomes are aligning to paint an increasingly coherent picture of a future global economy impacted by climate change. Taking the literature as a whole, the global consequences of unmitigated climate change are likely to be substantial, unequal, harmful in aggregate, and potentially destabilizing.