American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2026 · Santosh Anagol、Fernando V. Ferreira、Jonah M. Rexer
中文摘要
本文估计了圣保罗市区划改革的经济价值，该改革改变了交通走廊沿线允许建造的最高建筑量。开发商在受改革影响的街区增加了多户住宅建设的申报，使允许更高密度开发的城市社区住房供给增加、房价下降。我们的住房市场均衡模型估计，住房存量总体增加1.6%，价格下降0.4%，从而导致大量住房财富从现有房主转移给未来房主。该改革带来的福利改善相当于全市GDP的0.65%，主要来自开发商利润以及消费者从新的建成环境中获得的收益。(JEL分类号 G51, O18, R11, R23, R31, R41, R52)
Abstract
We estimate the economic value of zoning reform in São Paulo, which altered maximum permitted construction along transportation corridors. Developers increased filings for multifamily construction in blocks affected by the reform, leading to more housing supply and lower housing prices in neighborhoods that allow more densification. Our equilibrium model of housing markets estimates an aggregate 1.6 percent increase in housing stock and a 0.4 percent reduction in prices, resulting in large housing wealth transfers from current to future homeowners. The reform produced welfare gains of 0.65 percent of city GDP, mostly due to developer profits and consumer gains from the newly built environment. (JEL G51, O18, R11, R23, R31, R41, R52)