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选举舞弊对政府绩效的影响

The impact of election fraud on government performance
Journal of Public Economics · 2026 · Abigail Peralta

中文摘要

本文考察选举舞弊如何影响阻碍经济增长的政府腐败形式和繁文缛节,并以菲律宾建筑许可证的审批情况衡量这些现象;此类审批常因索贿而延误。为识别其效应,本文利用2010年改用自动化选举这一使舞弊更难实施的制度变化。基于比较此前高舞弊和低舞弊城镇随时间变化的研究设计,估计结果表明,自动化选举显著减少了选举舞弊,并由此使每年获批的建筑许可证数量大幅且持续增加15%。地方预算结果和支出重点似乎未受影响。

Abstract

I examine how election fraud affects the type of government corruption and red tape that inhibit economic growth, as measured by building permit approvals in the Philippines, which are often delayed due to requests for bribes. To identify effects, I exploit a switch to automated elections in 2010 that made committing fraud more difficult. Estimates from a research design comparing changes over time in previously high-fraud and low-fraud towns indicate that automated elections significantly reduced election fraud, and that this led to a sharp and sustained 15 percent increase in the number of building permits approved annually. Local budget outcomes and priorities do not appear to be affected.
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