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非常规货币政策冲击的公告特定分解及其效应

Announcement-Specific Decompositions of Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and Their Effects
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2023 · Daniel Lewis

中文摘要

本文提出利用日内数据中的异方差性,将资产价格变化识别并分解为公告特定的货币政策冲击,同时允许冲击性质与经济状态在不同公告之间发生变化。我计算了1996年1月至2019年12月期间,针对联邦基金利率、前瞻性指引、资产购买和美联储信息冲击的分解结果。分解结果揭示了在大衰退期间,哪些非常规政策措施的公告产生了显著影响。总体而言,前瞻性指引和资产购买对收益率、利差、股票和不确定性具有统计显著影响,但货币政策的效应随时间变化,尤以资产购买为甚。

Abstract

Abstract I propose to identify announcement-specific decompositions of asset price changes into monetary policy shocks exploiting heteroskedasticity in intraday data, accommodating both changes in the nature of shocks and the state of the economy across announcements. I compute decompositions with respect to Fed Funds, forward guidance, asset purchase, and Fed information shocks from January 1996 to December 2019. The decompositions illustrate which announcements of unconventional policy measures had significant effects during the Great Recession. Overall, forward guidance and asset purchases have significant effects on yields, spreads, equities, and uncertainty, but the effects of monetary policy vary over time, particularly asset purchases.
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