How do Campaigns Shape Vote Choice? Multicountry Evidence from 62 Elections and 56 TV Debates
中文摘要
我们使用自1952年以来10个国家62场选举的两轮调查数据，研究投票选择、信念与政策偏好的形成，并评估电视辩论对这一过程的贡献。我们的数据包含253,000个观测值。我们比较在选举前不同时点接受调查、随后又在选举后再次接受调查的受访者的投票意向与投票选择之间的一致性，并表明17%至29%的选民在竞选活动的最后两个月内做出决定。投票选择的改变与选民认为最重要议题的转变以及对候选人信念的转变相伴发生，并带来得票率的大幅波动。相比之下，政策偏好在整个竞选过程中保持极为稳定。最后，我们使用事件研究来估计电视辩论的影响，在电视辩论中候选人本人与选民沟通；同时也估计诸如自然与技术灾害等冲击的影响，这些冲击独立于竞选活动而发生。我们未发现这两类事件中任何一类对投票选择的形成产生影响，这表明在整个竞选过程中从媒体、政治活动人士和其他公民等其他来源接收到的信息影响更大。
Abstract
Abstract We use two-round survey data from 62 elections in 10 countries since 1952 to study the formation of vote choice, beliefs, and policy preferences and assess how televised debates contribute to this process. Our data include 253,000 observations. We compare the consistency between vote intention and vote choice of respondents surveyed at different points before, and then again after, the election, and show that 17% to 29% of voters make up their mind during the final two months of campaigns. Changes in vote choice are concomitant to shifts in issues voters find most important and in beliefs about candidates, and they generate sizable swings in vote shares. In contrast, policy preferences remain remarkably stable throughout the campaign. Finally, we use an event study to estimate the impact of TV debates, in which candidates themselves communicate with voters, and of shocks such as natural and technological disasters which, by contrast, occur independently from the campaign. We do not find any effect of either type of event on vote choice formation, suggesting that information received throughout the campaign from other sources such as the media, political activists, and other citizens is more impactful.