Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2023 · Johannes C. Buggle、Thierry Mayer、Seyhun Orcan Sakalli、Mathias Thoenig
中文摘要
我们估计了1933年至1941年间，面临纳粹德国迫害的犹太人外迁所涉及的推力与拉力因素。实证研究使用了一套独特的个体层面数据集，记录了这一时期德国犹太社群的迁移史。我们的分析揭示了在暴力情境下社会网络影响逃离决策的若干新渠道，这些渠道为暴力情境所特有。我们估计了一个迁移结构模型，其中个体根据其观察到的同伴所遭受的迫害与迁移情况作出迁移决策。识别依赖于居住在不同城市的同伴所面临的当地推力与拉力因素的外生变异。随后，我们开展多项反事实历史实验，以量化目的地国家的移民限制如何影响了犹太人的命运。例如，在《纽伦堡法案》（1935年）颁布后，若接收国取消对难民的工作限制，犹太人迁出德国的规模将增加12%至20%，并因避免遣送而使死亡率降低6%至10%。
Abstract
Abstract We estimate the push and pull factors involved in the outmigration of Jews facing persecution in Nazi Germany from 1933 to 1941. Our empirical investigation makes use of a unique individual-level data set that records the migration history of the Jewish community in Germany over the period. Our analysis highlights new channels, specific to violent contexts, through which social networks affect the decision to flee. We estimate a structural model of migration where individuals base their migration decision on the observation of persecution and migration among their peers. Identification rests on exogenous variations in local push and pull factors across peers who live in different cities of residence. Then we perform various experiments of counterfactual history to quantify how migration restrictions in destination countries affected the fate of Jews. For example, removing work restrictions for refugees in the recipient countries after the Nuremberg Laws (1935) would have led to an increase in Jewish migration out of Germany in the range of 12% to 20% and a reduction in mortality due to prevented deportations in the range of 6% to 10%.