全球化、贸易失衡与劳动力市场调整

中文摘要

我们认为，对贸易失衡进行建模，对于理解经济体应对全球化冲击的转型动态至关重要。我们构建并估计了一个具有两个关键要素的一般均衡多国多部门贸易模型：（一）由家庭消费与储蓄决策内生形成的贸易失衡；（二）跨部门与部门内部的劳动力市场摩擦。我们使用该模型开展了多项实证分析。研究发现，2000年至2014年间，“中国冲击”解释了美国制造业下降的28%——这一幅度是施加贸易平衡假设的模型所预测量级的1.65倍。同期美国服务业就业上升，使总体失业反应微乎其微。我们以广泛使用的ACR充分统计量方法为基准，比较了模型对贸易收益的预测。我们发现，我们对长期贸易收益与消费动态的预测与该方法存在显著分歧。

Abstract

Abstract We argue that modeling trade imbalances is crucial for understanding transitional dynamics in response to globalization shocks. We build and estimate a general equilibrium, multicountry, multisector model of trade with two key ingredients: (i) endogenous trade imbalances arising from households’ consumption and saving decisions; (ii) labor market frictions across and within sectors. We use our model to perform several empirical exercises. We find that the “China shock” accounted for 28% of the decline in U.S. manufacturing between 2000 and 2014—1.65 times the magnitude predicted from a model imposing balanced trade. A concurrent rise in U.S. service employment led to a negligible aggregate unemployment response. We benchmark our model’s predictions for the gains from trade against the popular ACR sufficient-statistics approach. We find that our predictions for the long-run gains from trade and consumption dynamics significantly diverge.