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权力之网:精英网络如何塑造中国的战争与政治

Web of Power: How Elite Networks Shaped War and Politics in China
Quarterly Journal of Economics · 2023 · Ying Bai、Ruixue Jia、Jiaojiao Yang

中文摘要

学者们认为,有权势的个体能够对一个国家的发展路径施加影响。然而,个人影响宏观层面政治经济结果的过程仍不清楚。本研究以现代史上最惨烈的内战——太平天国运动(1850–1864年)——为例,阐明一个人——曾国藩——如何利用其个人精英网络组织军队以镇压叛乱,以及这些网络如何影响国家的权力分布。两点发现尤为突出: 曾国藩掌权后,战前在曾国藩网络中精英本就较多的县经历了士兵死亡人数的增加; 战后政治权力显著地向这些精英的家乡县转移,造成国家层面权力分布更加不均衡。我们的发现凸显了微观层面的精英网络如何影响国家政治与社会权力分布,为精英、战争与国家之间的关系提供了新的启示。

Abstract

Abstract Scholars have argued that powerful individuals can exert influence on the path of a nation’s development. Yet the process through which people can have an effect on macro-level political economy outcomes remains unclear. This study uses the deadliest civil war in modern history, the Taiping Rebellion (1850–1864), to elucidate how one person—Zeng Guofan—used his personal elite networks to organize an army to suppress the rebellion, and how these networks would affect the nation’s power distribution. Two findings stand out: (i) counties that already had more prewar elites in Zeng’s networks experienced an increase in soldier deaths after he took power; and (ii) postwar political power shifted significantly toward the home counties of these elites, creating a less balanced national-level power distribution. Our findings highlight how micro-level elite networks can influence national politics and societal power distribution, shedding new light on the relationship between elites, war, and the state.
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