American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2023 · Saad Ahmad、Nuno Limão、Sarah Oliver、Serge Shikher
中文摘要
我们估计英国脱欧引发的政策不确定性上升对英国服务贸易的影响。我们将纳入不确定性的引力方程应用于2016年第一季度至2018年第四季度英国与欧盟之间的行业层面服务贸易数据。通过利用预测市场所反映的英国脱欧概率变化，并将其与一项针对各服务行业的新贸易政策风险指标进行交互，我们识别出英国脱欧威胁对贸易额和贸易参与均具有显著的负向影响。在此期间，英国脱欧概率的上升使服务出口至少下降了20个对数点。（JEL F13, F14, F15）
Abstract
We estimate the impact of increased policy uncertainty from Brexit on UK trade in services. We apply an uncertainty-augmented gravity equation to UK services trade with the European Union at the industry level from 2016:I to 2018:IV. By exploiting the variation in the probability of Brexit from prediction markets interacted with a new trade policy risk measure across service industries, we identify a significant negative impact of the threat of Brexit on trade values and participation. The increased probability of Brexit in this period lowered services exports by at least 20 log points. (JEL F13, F14, F15)