中文摘要
本文证实，定向政策会因揭示非目标单位的信息而适得其反。在世界最大的渔业中，监管机构试图通过暂时关闭幼鱼捕捞占比较高的区域来减少幼鱼捕捞。本文将行政微观数据与渔业企业提供的生物学信息更丰富的数据相结合，分离出由监管机构数据分辨率较低所导致的禁捕区变动。本文估计禁捕措施具有显著的时间和空间溢出效应。禁捕措施使幼鱼总捕捞量增加48%，因为禁捕公告隐含地传递出如下信号：在禁捕前、禁捕区外紧邻区域以及禁捕后进行捕捞具有较高生产率。(JEL D83, O13, Q21, Q22, Q28)
Abstract
This paper establishes that a targeted policy backfires because it reveals information about nontargeted units. In the world’s largest fishery, the regulator attempts to reduce the harvesting of juvenile fish by temporarily closing areas where the share of juvenile catch is high. By combining administrative microdata with biologically richer data from fishing firms, I isolate variation in closures that is due to the regulator’s lower-resolution data. I estimate substantial temporal and spatial spillovers from closures. Closures increase total juvenile catch by 48 percent because closure announcements implicitly signal that fishing before, just outside, and after closures is high productivity. (JEL D83, O13, Q21, Q22, Q28)