Coordination and Bandwagon Effects: How Past Rankings Shape the Behavior of Voters and Candidates
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics · 2023 · Riako Granzier、Vincent Pons、Clémence Tricaud
中文摘要
候选人在民调和过往选举中的排名可以成为政党和选民强有力的协调工具。利用法国两轮选举中的断点回归设计，我们表明在第一轮中排名第一的候选人比排名第二的候选人更有可能继续参选并获胜。排名第二相对于第三的这些效应甚至更大，且排名第三相对于第四也存在类似效应。这些效应源于盟友政党就哪位候选人应退选达成一致、选民协调其选择，以及想要投票给获胜者的从众效应。我们在其他19个国家发现了相似结果。(JEL D72, D83, D91, K16)
Abstract
Candidates' placements in polls and past elections can be powerful coordination devices for parties and voters. Using a regression discontinuity design in French two-round elections, we show that candidates who place first in the first round are more likely to stay in the race and win than those who placed second. These effects are even larger for ranking second versus third, and also present for third versus fourth. They stem from allied parties agreeing on which candidate should drop out, voters coordinating their choice, and the bandwagon effect of wanting to vote for the winner. We find similar results across 19 other countries. (JEL D72, D83, D91, K16)