Fallout and health: Chernobyl’s legacy, early-life exposure, and protective behavior
中文摘要
我们研究生命早期暴露于1986年切尔诺贝利灾难所产生的低剂量辐射，对成年期健康和生育结果的长期影响。利用意大利各市镇间放射性沉降的外生差异，我们构建了辐射暴露指数，并将其与18个出生队列（1976—1993年）的住院行政数据（2004—2016年）和分娩证明数据（2002—2019年）相匹配。在胎儿期或幼儿期暴露的女性，成年后甲状腺疾病、癌症、自然流产和死产的发生率较高。这些效应并未出现在儿童期较晚阶段暴露的人群中，表明关键发育窗口期的生物脆弱性更高。男性仅在癌症方面呈现出类似效应，这与女性更易发生甲状腺功能障碍且诊断率更高的情况一致。我们还发现，实际暴露存在行为异质性：私人规避成本较高且社会经济地位较低的市镇遭受了更为严重的健康影响。相比之下，与中央政府的政治立场一致性并不能预测对安全建议的遵从情况。总体而言，我们的研究结果凸显了生命早期环境冲击对健康的持久影响，以及行为摩擦在放大生物风险方面的作用。
Abstract
We study the long-term effects of early-life exposure to low-dose radiation from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster on adult health and fertility outcomes. Exploiting exogenous variation in radioactive fallout across Italian municipalities, we construct a radiation exposure index and link it to administrative data on hospitalizations (2004–2016) and delivery certificates (2002–2019) for 18 birth cohorts (1976–1993). Women exposed in utero or during early childhood exhibit elevated rates of thyroid disorders, cancer, spontaneous abortions, and stillbirths in adulthood. These effects are not observed among those exposed later in childhood, pointing to heightened biological vulnerability during critical developmental windows. Comparable effects for men are found only for cancer, consistent with women’s greater susceptibility to thyroid dysfunction and higher diagnosis rates. We also uncover behavioral heterogeneity in realized exposure: municipalities with higher private avoidance costs and lower socioeconomic status suffered more severe health impacts. In contrast, political alignment with the national government did not predict compliance with safety advisories. Overall, our findings highlight the enduring health consequences of early-life environmental shocks and the role of behavioral frictions in amplifying biological risks.