疫苗强制接种规定对疾病传播的影响

中文摘要

<h3>摘要</h3>2021年秋季，美国近700所四年制大学要求学生接种COVID-19疫苗。我们利用大学政策和县级卫生数据，估计强制接种规定对周边社区的影响。2021年8月至11月的事件研究表明，覆盖某县内所有大学的强制接种规定使每10万人中COVID-19死亡人数减少5.6人，相当于同期美国COVID-19死亡总人数下降4.6%。强制接种规定使每10万人中COVID-19病例减少504例、ICU收治人数减少16.2人，但我们未发现其对住院人数具有统计显著影响。在大学生人口规模较大且事前估计学生疫苗接种率较低的县，影响更大。

Abstract

<h3>Abstract</h3> Nearly 700 4-year U.S. colleges mandated students receive COVID-19 vaccinations in fall 2021. Using data on college policies and county health, we estimate how mandates affect surrounding communities. Event studies from August to November 2021 show that mandates covering all colleges in a county reduced COVID-19 deaths by 5.6 per 100,000 persons, a 4.6% reduction in the U.S. total during this period. Mandates reduced COVID cases by 504 and ICU admissions by 16.2 per 100,000, though we see no statistically significant impact on hospitalizations. Impacts are larger in counties with larger college populations and low estimated ex-ante student vaccination rates.