Household Consumption and Savings over the Life Cycle: The Roles of Demographics and Durables
Journal of Development Economics · 2027 · Neha Bairoliya、Areendam Chanda、Jingyi Fang、Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis、Fang Yang、Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
中文摘要
生命周期模型的经典预测是个人在生命期内平滑消费，但该预测主要是在发达国家进行检验的，且得到的实证支持甚少。我们通过分析印度生命周期消费、收入与储蓄率的模式，提供了一种新的发展中国家视角。与美国相比，印度家庭在调整家庭规模后，非耐用消费品支出的增长很小。令人意外的是，这一平坦的调整后曲线与生命周期中收入的大幅增长以及储蓄/盈余率的急剧上升并存。我们表明，非住房耐用品的块状积累是这一生命周期盈余的重要用途，有助于调和较高储蓄率与测得的成人等价非耐用品消费的平坦走势。在数量上，非住房耐用品存量的增长约占45岁时累积生命周期盈余的三分之一；而将推算的非住房耐用品投资流量加入非耐用品后的扩展支出曲线，使成人等价生命周期增长从8.4%提高到27.9%。
Abstract
The canonical prediction of life-cycle models, that individuals smooth consumption over their lifetime, has mostly been tested in developed countries and found little empirical support. We provide a novel developing-country perspective by analyzing patterns of life-cycle consumption, income, and savings rates in India. In contrast to the U.S., Indian households exhibit little growth in nondurable consumption expenditures after adjusting for family size. Surprisingly, this flat adjusted profile coexists with substantial income growth and a sharp rise in the savings/surplus rate over the life cycle. We show that lumpy non-housing durable accumulation is an important use of this life-cycle surplus, helping reconcile high savings rates with flat measured adult-equivalent nondurable consumption. Quantitatively, non-housing durable stock growth accounts for about one-third of accumulated life-cycle surplus by age 45, and an augmented expenditure profile that adds imputed non-housing durable investment flows to nondurables raises adult-equivalent life-cycle growth from 8.4% to 27.9%.