Journal of the European Economic Association · 2025 · Alex Armand、Iván Kim Taveras
中文摘要
自工业革命以来，人为排放导致海水酸度上升了26%，这一过程被称为海洋酸化，对海洋生物及依赖海洋的社区构成风险。本文利用1972年至2018年36个低收入和中等收入国家沿海地区的数据，考察海洋酸化对儿童健康的影响；这些地区涵盖全球沿海人口的41%。在识别策略上，我们利用人类聚居地附近海洋酸度的短期外生变化进行识别，发现产前暴露于较高的海水酸度会显著提高出生后最初几个月内的死亡风险，并影响儿童早期发育。我们提供的证据与这些影响同孕产妇营养不良相关的解释一致：酸度上升减少了小规模渔业的捕捞量，从而推高海产品价格，并减少关键营养素的摄入。我们的研究结果表明，针对这些影响的适应程度有限。据估计，在没有干预的情况下，到2100年，海洋酸化可能导致该地区多达7700万例新生儿死亡；在气候变化的预计成本中，不应忽视这一后果。
Abstract
Abstract Since the Industrial Revolution, ocean water acidity has risen by 26% due to anthropogenic emissions—a process known as ocean acidification—posing a risk for marine life and the communities depending on it. This paper examines the consequences of ocean acidification for child health, using data from coastal regions in 36 low- and middle-income countries from 1972 to 2018, encompassing 41% of the world’s coastal population. Leveraging short-term exogenous shifts in ocean acidity near human settlements for identification, we find that prenatal exposure to higher water acidity significantly raises the risk of death in the first months of life and impacts early childhood development. We show evidence consistent with these effects being associated with maternal malnutrition, as increased acidity reduces catches for small-scale fisheries, increasing seafood prices and reducing consumption of crucial nutrients. Our findings indicate limited adaptation to these impacts. We estimate that, absent intervention, ocean acidification could contribute to as many as 77 million neonatal deaths in this region by 2100—a consequence that should not be ignored in the projected cost of climate change.