The Global Infrastructure Gap: Potential, Perils, and a Framework for Distinction
中文摘要
2015年，世界银行声称，富裕国家的私人资本可以：(i) 弥合贫困国家的基础设施服务缺口；(ii) 实现可持续发展目标；以及 (iii) 通过将贫困国家基础设施投资从“数十亿”提升至“数万亿”来获利。我们的框架区分了世界银行这一主张成立与不成立的贫困国家。对于给定的贫困国家，该框架表明，如果基础设施的社会回报率能够跨越两道门槛，那么在该国基础设施上投资一美元就是有效率的：(a) 该贫困国家私人资本的社会回报率，以及 (b) 富裕国家私人资本的社会回报率。将这一框架应用于唯一一套涵盖全面、跨国的基础设施社会回报率数据集，结果显示，1985年，在53个贫困国家中，仅有7个国家的铺面道路和电力均跨越了这两道门槛。(JEL H43, H54, L94, O13, O18, Q01)
Abstract
In 2015, the World Bank claimed that rich-country private capital could: (i) close the infrastructure services gap in poor countries, (ii) achieve the sustainable development goals, and (iii) make money by moving from “billions to trillions” of investment in poor-country infrastructure. Our framework distinguishes those poor countries in which the Bank’s claim is tenable from those where it is not. For a given poor country, the framework reveals that investing a dollar in infrastructure is efficient if the social rate of return on infrastructure clears two hurdles: (a) the social rate of return on private capital in the poor country, and (b) the social rate of return on private capital in rich countries. Applying the framework to the only comprehensive, cross-country dataset of social rates of return on infrastructure indicates that in 1985 just 7 of 53 poor countries cleared the dual hurdles in both paved roads and electricity. (JEL H43, H54, L94, O13, O18, Q01)