NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Ellora Derenoncourt、Arindrajit Dube、Suresh Naidu、Heather Sarsons、Niharika Singh
中文摘要
从历史上看，工会的增长呈现阶段性激增。我们将1961—2025年的工会选举数据与一项涉及9,000名低工资工人的大规模信息实验相结合，研究社会学习在工会增长中的作用。观察性证据表明，势均力敌的选举获胜会导致同一州—行业内未来的选举获胜。实验结果表明，关于工会近期获胜的信息会提高工人对工会的支持以及他们对同事支持程度的判断，其效应主要集中在信息环境较弱且基线同事支持程度较低的工人中。相比之下，有关劳动力市场紧张程度的信息几乎没有影响。我们的结果凸显了社会学习作为工会增长机制的作用。
Abstract
Union growth has historically happened in spurts. We combine union election data from 1961–2025 with a large-scale information experiment involving 9,000 low-wage workers to study the role of social learning in union growth. Observationally, close election wins cause future wins within state-industries. Experimentally, information about recent union wins increases union support and beliefs about co-worker support, with effects concentrated among workers with weak information environments and low baseline coworker support. In contrast, information about labor market tightness has little effect. Our results highlight social learning as a mechanism for union growth.