NBER Working Papers · 2026 · Mayara Felix、Michael B. Wong
Abstract
Evidence that domestic outsourcing lowers pay comes largely from on-site transfers, in which workers move to a contractor but keep the same jobs. Displacement is rarely observed: whether workers lose their jobs, where they go, how earnings evolve. In Brazil’s 1993–1994 pro-outsourcing reforms, which differentially affected security guards, such transfers were rare; firms instead used occupational layoffs, shedding their guards while keeping other workers. Displaced guards’ employment recovered within five years, but many changed occupations and wages stayed about 12% lower. Lifetime losses average 1.2 to 1.5 years of pre-layoff earnings, concentrated among workers from high-wage firms, reflecting lost premia.