家庭制度与全球生育率转变

Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2026 · [{"name": "Paula E. Gobbi", "affiliation": ["Université Libre de Bruxelles"]}, {"name": "Anne Hannusch", "affiliation": ["University of Bonn"]}, {"name": "Pauline Rossi", "affiliation": ["École Polytechnique", "Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique"]}]

中文摘要

观察到的跨国生育率差异在很大程度上符合生育转变经典理论的预测: 人力资本水平较高、人均GDP较高或死亡率较低的国家, 往往表现出较低的生育率。然而, 当考察过去60年各国国内的变化时, 更大的生育率下降仅与人力资本、人均GDP或存活率的更大改善之间存在弱相关。为理解其原因, 我们聚焦于家庭制度的作用, 特别是婚姻与继承习俗。我们认为, 这些因素与文化规范的传播一道, 有助于解释生育率下降在时间、速度和幅度上的差异。我们提出一个整合经济、健康、制度与文化因素的简化模型, 以研究这些因素如何相互作用、进而塑造生育转变路径。我们发现, 家庭制度可以通过约束生育反应来传导经济发展的效应。

Abstract

Much of the observed cross-country variation in fertility aligns with the predictions of classic theories of the fertility transition: countries with higher levels of human capital, higher GDP per capita, or lower mortality rates tend to exhibit lower fertility. However, when examining changes within countries over the past 60 years, larger fertility declines are only weakly associated with greater improvements in human capital, per capita GDP, or survival rates. To understand why, we focus on the role of family institutions, particularly marriage and inheritance customs. We argue that, together with the diffusion of cultural norms, they help explain variations in the timing, speed and magnitude of the fertility decline. We propose a stylized model integrating economic, health, institutional and cultural factors to study how these factors interact to shape fertility transition paths. We find that family institutions can mediate the effect of economic development by constraining fertility responses.