Journal of Economic Perspectives · 2026 · [{"name": "Lant Pritchett", "affiliation": ["London School of Economics and Political Science"]}]
中文摘要
生育率下降与死亡率改善, 在未来几十年将于全球范围内形成一种强大且不可回避的人口老龄化算术, 并呈现三种模式。最富裕国家以及中国和前苏联地区, 劳动年龄人口(15-64岁)将出现绝对下降, 而65岁及以上人口将绝对上升。除非洲外的所有主要发展中地区——拉丁美洲、东南亚和太平洋、南亚以及西亚/中东——到2050年将经历温和的劳动年龄人口增长(低于30%), 同时65岁以上人口快速增长(增至两倍或三倍)。非洲(撒哈拉以南非洲和北非)的生育率下降起步较晚且降幅小得多, 因此在2050年的标准情景下, 非洲将占全球劳动年龄人口净增长总量的80%。在中期直至2050年间, 全球经济的一个根本特征是: 劳动生产率最高的国家将拥有绝对更少的本土出生劳动者, 而作为众多全球生产率最低国家所在地的非洲, 其劳动年龄人口将增加8亿。这一组合意味着, 那些创设合法通道、允许人们(尤其是青年)从低生产率、劳动力充裕之地流向高生产率、劳动力稀缺之地的政策, 有可能带来数万亿美元量级的收益。然而迄今为止, 政治尚未为这一双赢情景找到通向"同意"的路径。
Abstract
Falling fertility and improved mortality create a powerful and inexorable demographic arithmetic of ageing in the coming decades around the world, with three patterns. The richest countries, along with China and the Former Soviet Union, will see absolute declines in the labor force aged (15-64) population and absolute rises in those 65 plus. All major developing country regions except for Africa: Latin America, South-East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, and West Asia/Middle East, will experience modest labor force growth to 2050 (less than 30 percent) aged combined with rapid growth of those over 65 (doubling or tripling). The fall in fertility in Africa (Sub-Saharan and North) started later and has fallen much less and hence, in standard scenarios for 2050, Africa will account for 80 percent of all global net growth in the world’s labor force aged. A fundamental feature of the global economy over the medium-run to 2050 is that that highest labor productivity countries will have absolutely fewer native-born workers and Africa, home to many of the world’s lowest productivity countries, will have 800 million more labor force aged. The combination makes possible gains on the order of trillions of dollars to policies that creating legal pathways to allow people, particularly youth, to move from low productivity, labor abundance places to high productivity, labor scarcity places. But, so far, politics has not found the way to “yes” for this win-win scenario.