申请时的对冲：存在相关性的同时搜索

中文摘要

学校、大学和职位的申请者会通过申请涵盖冲刺校、匹配校和保底校的广泛组合来对冲风险。我们构建了一个能够解释这一做法的同时搜索框架。在该框架中，各学校的录取过程具有相关性，因此，如果申请者被某所学校拒绝，她就更有可能被选择性更强的学校拒绝。我们发现，此时申请者的最优策略是同时瞄准保底校和冲刺校。我们刻画了最优申请组合如何随申请者的信念、风险态度和申请成本而变化，并提出了一种可在多项式时间内求得最优组合的算法。（JEL D81、D83、D91、I23）

Abstract

Applicants to schools, colleges, and jobs hedge by applying to a broad range of options, including reaches, matches, and safeties. We develop a simultaneous-search framework that rationalizes this practice. In this framework, the admissions process is correlated across schools so that if an applicant is rejected by one school, she is more likely to be rejected by more selective schools. We find that an applicant then optimally targets both safeties and reaches. We characterize how the optimal portfolio varies with the applicant’s beliefs, risk attitudes, and application costs and offer an algorithm that delivers the optimal portfolio in polynomial time. (JEL D81, D83, D91, I23)