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动态通胀目标理论

A Theory of Dynamic Inflation Targets
American Economic Review · 2025 · Christopher Clayton、Andreas Schaab

中文摘要

央行的通胀目标应当一成不变吗?我们研究了政府与央行之间的动态机制设计问题。央行关于结构性冲击拥有持续性的私人信息。企业从央行的报告中获知状态并形成通胀预期。动态通胀目标实施了完全信息下的承诺配置。央行被授权提前一期调整目标的水平与灵活性。自然利率的下降与菲利普斯曲线的趋平意味着方向相反的最优目标调整。我们的结果对通胀目标设计的实际政策问题具有启示。

Abstract

Should central banks’ inflation targets remain set in stone? We study a dynamic mechanism design problem between a government and a central bank. The central bank has persistent private information about structural shocks. Firms learn the state from the central bank’s reports and form inflation expectations. A dynamic inflation target implements the full-information commitment allocation. The central bank is delegated the authority to adjust the target’s level and flexibility one period in advance. A declining natural interest rate and a flattening Phillips curve imply opposite optimal target adjustments. Our results speak to practical policy questions of inflation target design. (JEL D82, E12, E31, E52, E58)
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