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低利率环境下的财富不平等

Wealth Inequality in a Low Rate Environment
Econometrica · 2024 · Matthieu Gomez、Émilien Gouin-Bonenfant

中文摘要

本文研究利率对财富不平等的影响。较低的利率会降低食利者的财富增长率,但同时通过降低融资成本提高企业家的财富增长率。为厘清哪种效应占主导,我们推导了利率对财富分布帕累托指数影响的充分统计量:该统计量取决于财富分布右尾个体的生命周期股权与债务发行率。我们利用关于美国顶级财富演变轨迹的新数据估计了这一充分统计量。总体而言,我们发现利率的长期下降(或更一般地,要求回报率的长期下降)可以解释帕累托不平等上升的约40%;所谓帕累托不平等上升,即超级富豪相对于富豪领先程度的提高。

Abstract

We study the effect of interest rates on wealth inequality. While lower rates decrease the growth rate of rentiers, they also increase the growth rate of entrepreneurs by making it cheaper to raise capital. To understand which effect dominates, we derive a sufficient statistic for the effect of interest rates on the Pareto exponent of the wealth distribution: it depends on the lifetime equity and debt issuance rate of individuals in the right tail of the wealth distribution. We estimate this sufficient statistic using new data on the trajectory of top fortunes in the U.S. Overall, we find that the secular decline in interest rates (or more generally of required rates of returns) can account for about 40% of the rise in Pareto inequality; that is, the degree to which the super rich pulled ahead relative to the rich.
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