财富是如何赢得的：作为市场基本面的要素份额

中文摘要

股票市场为何涨跌？从1989年到2017年，企业股权的实际人均价值以7.2%的年率增长。我们估计，这一增长中有40%归因于在减速的经济中向股东回报的再分配，主要以牺牲劳动报酬为代价。经济增长仅解释了该增长的25%，其次是更低的风险价格（21%）和更低的利率（14%）。1952至1988年期间，市场股权的增长仅为前一时期的三分之一，但经济增长对其的贡献率超过100%。

Abstract

Why does the stock market rise and fall? From 1989 to 2017, the real per capita value of corporate equity increased at a 7.2% annual rate. We estimate that 40% of this increase was attributable to a reallocation of rewards to shareholders in a decelerating economy, primarily at the expense of labor compensation. Economic growth accounted for just 25% of the increase, followed by a lower risk price (21%) and lower interest rates (14%). The period 1952–88 experienced only one-third as much growth in market equity, but economic growth accounted for more than 100% of it.