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工具变量设计的负控制伪检验

Negative Control Falsification Tests for Instrumental Variable Designs
American Economic Review · 2026 · Oren Danieli、Daniel Nevo、Itai Walk、Bar Weinstein、Dan Zeltzer

中文摘要

工具变量(IV)设计的有效性通常使用两类证伪检验来检验。我们将这些检验刻画为负控制变量与工具变量或结果变量之间的条件独立性检验;负控制变量是对那些威胁识别的未观测变量的代理。我们描述了变量为充当负控制所必须满足的条件。我们表明,这些证伪检验不仅考察独立性和排除限制,还考察函数形式假设。我们的分析显示,即使在有效的工具变量设计中,这些检验的常规应用也可能标记出问题。我们提供了实施指导以应对这些问题。(JEL C12, C18, C26, C52)

Abstract

The validity of instrumental variable (IV) designs is typically tested using two types of falsification tests. We characterize these tests as conditional independence tests between negative control variables—proxies for unobserved variables posing a threat to the identification—and the IV or the outcome. We describe the conditions variables must satisfy in order to serve as negative controls. We show these falsification tests examine not only independence and the exclusion restriction but also functional form assumptions. Our analysis reveals conventional applications of these tests may flag problems even in valid IV designs. We offer implementation guidance to address these issues. (JEL C12, C18, C26, C52)

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