什么决定了电气化进程？来自美国70年家庭供暖选择的证据

中文摘要

美国使用电力供暖的家庭比例从1950年的1%稳步上升至2020年的40%。研究表明，能源价格、地理位置、气候、住房特征和收入可以解释这一增幅的90%，其中能源价格是迄今为止最重要的因素。本文随后估算了对新建住宅实施电气化强制规定的成本。温暖州的家庭本来就倾向于选择电力供暖，因此其福利平均每年减少不到350美元。然而，寒冷州的家庭倾向于选择天然气供暖，因此其福利每年减少超过1,000美元。

Abstract

Abstract The percentage of U.S. homes heated with electricity has increased steadily from 1% in 1950 to 40% in 2020. Energy prices, geography, climate, housing characteristics, and income are shown to explain 90% of the increase, with energy prices by far the most important factor. The paper then estimates the cost of an electrification mandate for new homes. Households in warm states tend to prefer electricity anyway, so would be made worse off by less than $350 annually on average. Households in cold states, however, tend to prefer natural gas so would be made worse off by more than $1,000 annually.