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封锁与创新:来自1918年流感大流行的证据

Lockdowns and Innovation: Evidence from the 1918 Flu Pandemic
Review of Economics and Statistics · 2023 · Enrico Berkes、Olivier Deschênes、Ruben Gaetani、Jeffrey Lin、Christopher Severen

中文摘要

保持社交距离是否会损害创新?我们估计了非药物干预措施(NPIs)——即旨在通过限制人际互动来减缓疾病传播的政策——对本地发明活动的影响。我们构建了一个面板数据集,涵盖1918年流感大流行期间美国50个大城市获得授权的专利以及所采取的NPIs。双重差分估计表明,与实施NPI时间较短的城市相比,实施NPI时间较长的城市在大流行期间的专利活动并未下降,且此后的专利活动水平更高。大流行期间采取的NPIs并未因限制本地知识溢出而减少当地发明活动,反而可能保存了其他有利于发明的要素。

Abstract

Abstract Does social distancing harm innovation? We estimate the effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)—policies that restrict interactions in an attempt to slow the spread of disease—on local invention. We construct a panel of issued patents and NPIs adopted by 50 large U.S. cities during the 1918 flu pandemic. Difference-in-differences estimates show that cities adopting longer NPIs did not experience a decline in patenting during the pandemic relative to short-NPI cities, and they recorded higher patenting afterward. Rather than reduce local invention by restricting localized knowledge spillovers, NPIs adopted during the pandemic may have preserved other inventive factors.
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