中文摘要
沿海地区集聚了与其面积不成比例的世界人口，这反映了历史优势，但随着自然灾害加剧和海平面上升，环境变化威胁要在未来数十年逆转沿海地区的命运。本文探讨大规模基础设施投资是否应继续向沿海地区倾斜。我利用越南2000年至2010年道路投资的详细地理编码数据，估计了一个动态空间均衡框架，并发现证据表明，沿海偏向会产生显著成本。研究结果凸显了在决定当前基础设施配置地点时，将环境变化的动态效应纳入考量的重要性。(JEL H54, O18, P25, Q54, R11, R42, R58)
Abstract
Coasts contain a disproportionate share of the world's population, reflecting historical advantages, but environmental change threatens a reversal of coastal fortune in the coming decades as natural disasters intensify and sea levels rise. This paper considers whether large infrastructure investments should continue to favor coastal areas. I estimate a dynamic spatial equilibrium framework using detailed geo-referenced data on road investments in Vietnam from 2000 to 2010 and find evidence that coastal favoritism has significant costs. The results highlight the importance of accounting for the dynamic effects of environmental change in deciding where to allocate infrastructure today. (JEL H54, O18, P25, Q54, R11, R42, R58)