关于边际消费倾向的五个事实：来自一项随机试验的证据

中文摘要

我们基于一项关于暂时性转移支付所产生的边际消费倾向（MPC）的试验，提出五个事实：（1）类现金转移支付的一个月期MPC为23%；（2）若转移支付通过一张卡发放，且三周后剩余资金失效，其MPC要高得多（61%），这与货币可替代性不符；（3）消费反应集中在最初三周；（4）MPC随家庭特征而异，但即使在流动性富裕的家庭中也很高；（5）无条件MPC分布呈现出较大差异。我们的研究发现可为刺激政策的设计提供参考，并对现有宏观经济模型提出挑战。（JEL D12、D91、E21、G51、I38）

Abstract

We present five facts from an experiment on the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) out of transitory transfers: (1) the one-month MPC on a cash-like transfer is 23 percent; (2) it is substantially higher (61 percent) on a transfer administered via a card where remaining funds expire after three weeks, inconsistent with money fungibility; (3) the consumption response is concentrated in the first three weeks; (4) MPCs vary with household characteristics but are high even for the liquid wealthy; (5) unconditional MPC distribution exhibits large variation. Our findings inform the design of stimulus policies and pose challenges to existing macroeconomic models. (JEL D12, D91, E21, G51, I38)