Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits: Evidence from Administrative Micro Data
American Economic Review · 2024 · Peter Ganong、Fiona Greig、Pascal Noel、Daniel Sullivan、Joseph Vavra
中文摘要
我们表明，美国历史上最大规模的失业救济金增加产生了较大的支出影响和较小的求职影响。这一发现具有三点含义。第一，在疫情期间，增加的救济金对解释总支出动态——而非就业动态——具有重要意义。第二，救济金扩张使我们得以研究通常流动性较低的家庭在高流动性状态下的边际消费倾向（MPC）。这些家庭的MPC仍然很高。这表明，驱动支出行为的不仅是当前流动性，持久性的行为特征也发挥着作用。第三，产生上述结果的机制表明，临时性救济金补充是一种有前景的逆周期工具。（JEL E21, E24, E32, E62, E71, G51, J65）
Abstract
We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in US history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics—but not employment dynamics—during the pandemic. Second, benefit expansions allow us to study the MPC of normally low-liquidity households in a high-liquidity state. These households still have high MPCs. This suggests a role for permanent behavioral characteristics, rather than just current liquidity, in driving spending behavior. Third, the mechanisms driving our results imply that temporary benefit supplements are a promising countercyclical tool. (JEL E21, E24, E32, E62, E71, G51, J65)