海外带来的富足：移民收入与长期经济发展
Abundance from Abroad: Migrant Income and Long-Run Economic Development
American Economic Review · 2026 · [{"name": "Gaurav Khanna", "affiliation": ["University of San Diego", "University of California San Diego"]}, {"name": "Emir Murathanoglu", "affiliation": ["Oberlin College"]}, {"name": "Caroline Theoharides", "affiliation": ["Amherst College"]}, {"name": "Dean Yang", "affiliation": ["Bread for the World Institute"]}]
中文摘要
我们研究国际移民的收入前景如何影响来源地的长期发展。我们利用1997年亚洲金融危机的汇率冲击，在菲律宾各省之间采用移位份额（shift-share）识别策略。最初的移民收入冲击随时间被放大六倍，提高了国内收入、教育水平、移民技能以及高技能移民。值得注意的是，长期收入增益中有74.9%来自国内收入而非移民收入。汇率冲击经由贸易驱动产生的影响，与经由移民收入产生的效应正交。一个结构模型显示，长期收入增益的19.7%源于教育投资。国际移民促进了来源地社区广泛的经济发展。（JEL F22, F31, G01, J24, J82, O15, O16）
Abstract
We study how international migrant income prospects affect long-run development in origin areas. We leverage the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis exchange rate shocks in a shift-share identification strategy across Philippine provinces. Initial migrant income shocks are magnified six-fold over time, increasing domestic income, education levels, migrant skills, and high-skilled migration. Remarkably, 74.9 percent of long-run income gains come from domestic rather than migrant income. Trade driven impacts of exchange rate shocks are orthogonal to effects via migrant income. A structural model reveals that 19.7 percent of long-run income gains stem from educational investments. International migration fosters broad economic development in origin communities. (JEL F22, F31, G01, J24, J82, O15, O16)