中文摘要
由于历史安排，香港住房市场中有关2047年后土地租约续期保障存在一种独特差异，我们利用这一差异识别政治风险敞口。相较于已获承诺享有续期保障的房产，由现届政府批出的无保障租约房产以8%的折价出售；殖民时期租约房产还会额外折价8%。将估计所得的结构参数（表明2047年后地租将额外增加20%）纳入模型后，我们的模型能够很好地拟合不同租约期限下的实证折价。折价随时间推移而增大，在对香港未来更为悲观的地区尤其如此。（JEL D72, G12, R31, R38）
Abstract
We identify exposure to political risk by exploiting a unique variation around land lease extension protection after 2047 in Hong Kong’s housing market due to historical arrangements. Relative to properties that have been promised an extension protection, those with unprotected leases granted by the current government are sold at a discount of 8 percent; those with colonial leases suffer an additional discount of 8 percent. Incorporating estimated structural parameters that suggest an additional 20 percent ground rent after 2047, our model matches empirical discounts well across lease horizons. Discounts increase over time, particularly in areas with greater pessimism about the city’s future. (JEL D72, G12, R31, R38)