中文摘要
我们对美国初创企业率的长期下降提出了一个简单解释。它源于自1970年代末以来劳动力供给增长的放缓，而这在很大程度上由人口结构预先决定。这一渠道可以解释大约一半的下降，以及为何现有企业的存活率和生命周期内的平均增长变化甚微。我们在一个标准的企业动态模型中展示了这些结果，并利用各州之间劳动力供给增长的差异检验了这一机制。最后，我们表明，利用历史机构统计表推算出的更长的进入率序列，在1960年代至1970年代劳动力增长加速时期呈上升趋势。(JEL D22, D25, E24, J11, J22, J23, M11)
Abstract
We propose a simple explanation for the long-run decline in the US start-up rate. It originates from a slowdown in labor supply growth since the late 1970s, largely predetermined by demographics. This channel can explain roughly half of the decline and why incumbent firm survival and average growth over the life cycle have changed little. We show these results in a standard model of firm dynamics and test the mechanism using cross-state variation in labor supply growth. Finally, we show that a longer entry rate series imputed using historical establishment tabulations rises over the 1960s–1970s period of accelerating labor force growth. (JEL D22, D25, E24, J11, J22, J23, M11)