中文摘要
本文将一个经典观点形式化：在次优环境中，贸易可能导致福利损失——扭曲带来的增量收入损失可能超过贸易收益。在一个含扭曲性税收的Melitz模型中，我们推导出福利收益/损失的充分统计量，并表明相对于有效率情形（Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare 2012）的偏离，可以由投入份额与产出份额之间的缺口以及国内广延边际弹性来刻画。这一损失反映了获得更多补贴的企业内生地选择进入出口市场。利用2005年中国制造业数据和模型推断的企业层面扭曲，我们证明了规模可观的负向财政外部性可能抵消传统的贸易收益。（JEL D22, F14, H25, L60, O19, P31, P33）
Abstract
This paper formalizes a classic idea that in second-best environments trade can induce welfare losses: incremental income losses from distortions can outweigh trade gains. In a Melitz model with distortionary taxes, we derive sufficient statistics for welfare gains/losses and show departures from the efficient case (Arkolakis, Costinot, and Rodríguez-Clare 2012) can be captured by the gap between an input and output share and domestic extensive margin elasticities. The loss reflects an endogenous selection of more subsidized firms into exporting. Using Chinese manufacturing data in 2005 and model-inferred firm-level distortions, we demonstrate that a sizable negative fiscal externality can potentially offset conventional gains. (JEL D22, F14, H25, L60, O19, P31, P33)